High pressure keeps Birmingham mostly dry this week, with a fresher feel for Bonfire Night

High pressure is staying in charge of the UK's weather this week, which means a largely settled run-up to Bonfire Night for Birmingham, with only light showers in the forecast and a fresher feel than the mild autumn so far.

The Met Office says a large blocking area of high pressure is sitting across the country, with the jet stream meandering away to the north. That keeps the weather calm, though not completely dry.

A brisk easterly breeze

Across southern parts of the UK, a brisk easterly breeze will keep nights a little milder but make the days feel chilly, particularly further east. Showers will feed in from the east during Tuesday, with the best chance of staying dry, and of some brighter or sunny spells, further west.

Temperatures will be around average for early November. But after such a mild autumn, the Met Office says it "may feel noticeably fresher, especially when exposed to the easterly breeze".

Little changes on Wednesday. Most places should just about reach double figures, though the breeze across southern and eastern areas will make it feel colder than the thermometer suggests. In the south, the breeze should also stop fog forming.

More cloud later in the week

As the week goes on, pressure will slowly fall and winds across southern Britain will ease, but high pressure will remain the main influence. Cloud may become trapped underneath it, and by Thursday morning there is a chance of fog where skies are clear, along with low cloud and murk, especially further north.

Southern areas, including the Midlands, are more likely to stay dry. Temperatures may edge down towards the end of the week, with some places struggling to reach double figures under persistent cloud. Even with lighter winds, the Met Office says it could feel "distinctly chilly".

Good news for fireworks

Overall rainfall totals this week are not expected to be high, and high pressure is likely to stay influential into the start of the weekend, bringing "plenty of fine and dry weather" with some bright or sunny spells.

For anyone heading to a display on Thursday or over the weekend, the forecaster says: "For anyone planning fireworks, there should be dry weather for many, although visibility could be reduced by mist or fog in places."

Looking further ahead, there are signs that more unsettled weather could approach from the south-west by late Sunday and into Monday, though the Met Office says there is uncertainty over how quickly that change will arrive, and the settled weather could hold on a while longer.

Making the most of it

A dry, calm week is a good chance to enjoy Birmingham's parks in their autumn colours before the leaves are gone. Wrap up against the easterly breeze, take a torch for the earlier sunsets, and allow extra time if you are driving early in the morning, when patches of fog are possible.

The latest forecast and any warnings are on the Met Office website and app.