Grey but mostly dry weekend for Birmingham, with fog on Sunday morning and brighter skies later

Birmingham's weekend looks grey, chilly and mostly dry, which is good news for anyone heading to a fireworks display on Saturday evening and for those attending Remembrance services on Sunday morning. The Met Office says high pressure will stay firmly in charge across the UK, keeping rain away but trapping cloud, mist and fog close to the ground.

Don't expect much sunshine on Saturday, but there is a better chance of some blue sky by Sunday afternoon.

Why so cloudy under high pressure?

High pressure is usually linked with clear skies, but in autumn and winter it can do the opposite. With winds very light, moisture becomes trapped near the surface, producing large areas of low cloud, mist and fog. Long nights and weak November sunshine mean that murk can be slow to clear during the day.

An area of low pressure will sit to the south-west, but forecasters say it will stay well away from the UK, sending its wind and rain towards Spain and Portugal instead.

Saturday: misty start, dry for the fireworks

Saturday morning is expected to start grey, with mist, murk and some fog patches, and a little light rain or drizzle in places. Most of England will simply stay dry and cloudy through the day.

Temperatures will depend on whether the cloud breaks. Under persistent cloud, highs of only around 9C to 11C are expected, close to or a little below average for early November. Where the sun does come out, it could feel a little warmer quite quickly.

For the many bonfire weekend displays planned around Birmingham, the forecast is encouraging. The Met Office says conditions on Saturday evening "should remain largely dry", with no widespread rain expected, although there could still be some drizzle, especially over higher ground. The blanket of cloud should also stop temperatures falling too sharply after dark, but wrap up anyway: it will feel damp and cool.

Sunday: fog first, brighter later

Light winds through Saturday night will allow mist and fog to form or linger into Sunday morning, and some of it could be stubborn. Anyone travelling early to a Remembrance Sunday service or parade should allow a little extra time and use dipped headlights in fog.

There is "a little more optimism for the second half of the day", the forecasters say, with more breaks in the cloud likely during Sunday afternoon and a greater chance of blue skies and spells of sunshine. It will remain generally dry, but temperatures will struggle, with some places staying in single figures all day. After a relatively mild autumn, the weekend is likely to feel noticeably cooler.

No "big freeze" on the way

Some headlines this week have talked of a "big freeze" and snow. In a review of those headlines on Thursday, the Met Office said the forecast did not currently show a widespread or particularly significant cold spell, with temperatures expected to stay broadly around average and the coming days more typical of "an unsettled and occasionally murky November period than a significant early-season freeze".

Towards the end of Sunday, the breeze may start to pick up in the south-west, which forecasters say could be the first sign of a change in the weather pattern next week. For now, the message for Birmingham is: often cloudy, mostly dry and rather chilly, with the best of the brightness on Sunday afternoon.