High pressure brings a dry, calm and foggy spell for Halloween and beyond

After a stormy few weeks, Birmingham is heading into a much calmer spell, with the Met Office forecasting high pressure, light winds and very little rain for much of the next ten days. The main thing to watch out for is fog.

High pressure takes charge

The jet stream is now meandering to the north of the UK, allowing high pressure to build. By the end of the weekend and the start of next week, two areas of high pressure are expected to merge, leaving a large blocking high across the country.

The Met Office says there is strong agreement that high pressure will stay in control through the weekend and much of next week. Its most likely pattern for Monday gives a 91 per cent chance of high pressure dominating the UK, and 75 per cent for Tuesday, when pressure could reach around 1040 hPa in places.

Any rain over the coming days will mainly affect Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Many places will see very little rain, and some will stay completely dry.

Foggy mornings

With dry weather and light winds, fog is likely to be one of the main features of the forecast. It could be locally dense, especially where skies clear overnight. Anyone driving early in the morning, including on the school run or the commute, should allow extra time and use dipped headlights in fog.

Turning colder

Temperatures are expected to fall gradually over the next ten days as the still air sits over the UK. Where the sun breaks through and winds stay light, it could feel pleasantly warm for early November. But places stuck under low cloud, mist or fog could feel much colder.

Looking ahead to the first full weekend of November, there are signs of a return to more changeable weather, though the Met Office says uncertainty is greater by then.

What about Halloween?

The calmer weather should be good news for trick-or-treaters on Saturday evening. Halloween weather in the UK has been remarkably varied over the years. According to the Met Office's records, the highest Halloween temperature was 23.6C, recorded at Kew Gardens and Gravesend in 2014, while the strongest Halloween wind gust was 110mph, at Gwennap Head in Cornwall in 1977 and the Needles on the Isle of Wight in 2022.

Snow has even been recorded on Halloween, with 7cm lying at Boltshope Park in County Durham in 2000, England's deepest on record for the date. There is no sign of anything like that this year: the dominant message for the days ahead is high pressure, light winds and very little rain.