Lula wins historic fourth term after Brazil comeback

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a historic fourth term as Brazil's president, coming from behind to beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday's run-off election.

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, won 51.79 per cent of valid votes, or 64.26 million ballots, against Bolsonaro's 48.21 per cent, or 59.83 million, according to the final tally reported by Al Jazeera. He is the first candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985 to win a presidential run-off after finishing second in the first round.

A dramatic reversal

The result turned the first round on its head. On 4 October Bolsonaro took 47.03 per cent of the vote to Lula's 45.16 per cent, a lead of about 2.2 million votes. Three weeks later, Lula was ahead by more than four million.

Turnout rose too, to 80.8 per cent from 78.92 per cent in the first round, as millions of voters who had stayed at home earlier in the month came out.

"I just had to tell you that I love you. Tomorrow, the fight continues," Lula told cheering supporters at a victory parade in São Paulo. "No one is required to like the president-elect, but he must govern for everyone."

How he did it

Analysts told Al Jazeera that the comeback was driven by a revitalised grassroots campaign, a surge of young supporters and a switch to campaigning online. After the first round, young Brazilians organised themselves on the internet into what became known as "Lula's army".

Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, said Lula's campaign had initially looked complacent. "The campaign really pivoted towards a digital mentality and a grassroots effort," he said.

Experts also pointed to mistakes by Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. "In the first week, he was already behaving as if he were already the president-elect. He was appointing ministers," said Vinicius G. Rodrigues Vieira, a professor of economics and international relations.

Challenges ahead

The victory is not the end of the story. Bolsonaro has refused to concede, calling for the result to be annulled after a Supreme Court justice ordered voting to be extended by two hours. Both candidates had asked for extensions because of transport disruption and severe weather, and experts say his legal arguments are weak.

Lula will also face a conservative-dominated Congress, where Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and its allies could control more than 280 of the 513 seats in the lower house, which could make it hard to pass his programme.

Why it matters

Brazil is Latin America's largest country. Professor Vieira called the election arguably one of the most consequential in its history, stressing how important it was to "keep a very high degree of political participation".

With turnout up and millions of first-round abstainers returning to vote, the run-off showed Brazilians doing just that.