Latvia's pro-European United List wins election

Latvia's governing United List has won the country's parliamentary election, taking 41 of the 100 seats in the Saeima, the national parliament, in its best result since the restoration of independence in 1991, according to results reported on Sunday.

The party, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, won around 35.8 per cent of the vote. It is pro-European and strongly supportive of Ukraine, and the result is seen as a vote for continuity in a country on the front line of tensions with Russia.

The results

• United List: 35.76 per cent, 41 seats
• Latvia First: 13.25 per cent, 17 seats
• Sovereign Power and the Alliance of Young Latvians: 11.87 per cent, 15 seats
• National Alliance: 9.02 per cent, 10 seats
• The Progressives: 7.98 per cent, 10 seats
• New Unity: 6.45 per cent, 7 seats

The Union of Greens and Farmers, which previously had 16 seats, fell below the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter parliament, with 4.46 per cent.

Populists gain ground

Although United List won comfortably, populist parties also made gains. Latvia First came second with 17 seats, eight more than at the last election, and Sovereign Power and the Alliance of Young Latvians won 15 seats, having had none before.

New Unity, the party of former prime ministers including Krisjanis Karins and Evika Silina, lost 19 seats, a dramatic fall for a party that had led Latvian governments for much of the past decade.

Low turnout

Turnout was 51.79 per cent, down by more than seven percentage points from 2022 and the lowest in recent Latvian elections.

Forming a government

United List does not have a majority on its own and will need coalition partners. Analysts said a coalition with the National Alliance would give it a narrow majority of 51 seats, and bringing in New Unity as well would provide a more comfortable majority.

Under pressure from Russia

The election took place against a backdrop of security fears. Latvia, which borders Russia and Belarus, has reported airspace incursions and acts of hybrid warfare, such as cyber attacks and sabotage, which it blames on Russia. Security and defence spending were central issues in the campaign, alongside the cost of living and the economy.

Latvia, a former Soviet republic, regained its independence in 1991 and joined both NATO and the European Union in 2004. About a quarter of its population of around 1.8 million are ethnic Russians, and relations between the Latvian majority and the Russian-speaking minority have been a recurring political issue.

Why it matters

The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the strongest supporters of Ukraine in Europe, and among the highest spenders on defence relative to the size of their economies. A strong showing for a pro-Western government is likely to be welcomed by NATO allies, including the UK, which leads a NATO battlegroup in neighbouring Estonia.

Latvians in Britain

Many Latvians have moved to the UK since Latvia joined the EU in 2004, and Latvian citizens living abroad were able to vote in the election at embassies and polling stations overseas.

How Latvia votes

Latvia uses a system of proportional representation, in which seats are shared out among parties according to their share of the vote in five large constituencies. Parties must win at least 5 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament. After an election, the President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister, who must then win a vote of confidence in the Saeima for the new government.